The shopper heading into Q4 is cautious, value-hungry and willing to wait for a deal. That's the warning from retail veteran Thom Blischok of the Dialogic Group, who joined IGA President & CEO John Ross for the latest IGA Executive Session.
In a wide-ranging conversation, Ross and Blischok covered the outlook for Q4 and 2027 and an issue few in the industry are talking about yet: tariff recovery. Watch the full video below, then read on for the highlights and the action steps you can take to your stores today.
Blischok has spent more than 50 years in the grocery industry. He started as the only bagger at a Piggly Wiggly in Tennessee, delivering groceries on his bike. From there he flew in the Air Force, worked in technology on the Apollo and space shuttle programs, and led merchandising innovation and transformation at Walmart. He also owned his own small retail business in Phoenix.
For the past 15 years, Blischok has helped retailers, manufacturers and independent operators succeed. As Ross put it, that kind of view across retail brands, across the country and around the globe "gives you an insight that you can't get" from a regional seat.
Blischok's first prediction: Q4 will be what he calls "the margin trap."
"The consumer has learned over the past 18 months to shop for value and more value," he said. "What we're going to see in Q4 is shoppers waiting for the promotion."
Manufacturers and retailers will push for more and more promotions to keep up. The result, Blischok warned, will show up in year-end earnings reports that say "we made our sales numbers, but our margin numbers are not where they need to be."
Looking ahead, Blischok doesn't expect much economic relief. He pointed to continued diesel costs, modest income growth and inflation of roughly 3.2% to 3.8%, with the first half of the year worse than the second.
"It's going to be a cautious year," he said, "a year where independents will need to sharpen their game, not only in localization, but in personalization."
He also sees private brands playing a major role in independent grocery in 2027, and challenged every operator, manufacturer and retailer to ask one question: How are we going to deliver value in 2027?
Ross agreed, noting that shoppers face rising costs everywhere they look, from housing and healthcare to transportation and fuel. Every time grocery inflation climbs above 3%, he said, it has "a sales-blunting effect."
Blischok sees the industry splitting into three groups in 2027. Walmart and Amazon will keep using technology to set the pace on shopper experience. Independents should compete on the shopping experience itself. The retailers in the middle will struggle to choose between the two.
His most practical warning for independents: you probably aren't losing whole shoppers. You're losing them one item at a time.
"As the economics continue to pressure that budget, they're saying, 'Well, I can buy this item someplace else cheaper,'" Blischok said. His fix is to pick your top 50 or top 100 items "where we have to be razor sharp on pricing to keep those baskets within our stores."
Blischok also believes the industry is moving toward what he calls "the occasion economy," or occasion-based merchandising. He cited Walmart's $40 turkey dinner last holiday season as a standout example and asked: Can independents create something similar?
Whether it's holiday dinners, holiday entertaining or even household cleaning, the opportunity is to package solutions around the moments your shoppers are planning for.
The conversation then turned to an issue Blischok has been raising across the industry. As tariff refunds flow back to some importers and manufacturers, will shoppers one day ask, "Where's my rebate?"
Blischok said there are already more than 100 lawsuits from individuals against retailers and manufacturers over tariff recovery. He estimated that since February 2025, roughly $210 billion to $230 billion in food and beverage imports have come into the U.S., with about $18 billion to $22 billion of that tariffed.
His firm tracks which companies are receiving recovery money daily. "I am very sure it hasn't passed to the wholesale distributors yet, or to the retailers," he said. "At some point the consumer is going to say, 'I expect my money back.'"
The challenge is that untangling tariffs from inflation, volume and other cost factors is extremely complex. As Ross noted, the retailer is the point of the spear, even though cost increases were negotiated deep in the supply chain. All the shopper sees, he said, is that they're paying far more for groceries than they did in 2020.
Blischok's guidance for wholesalers and retailers:
Blischok closed with five points for retailers, wholesalers and manufacturers to act on together:
As Blischok said, each of his points "could have been a show unto themselves," and this won't be the last time the two sit down together.
In the meantime, here's where to start this week:
Watch the full Executive Session above and share it freely with your store teams, wholesale partners and vendors.