Halloween 2025: How Independent Grocers Can Win in a Split-Season Market

Halloween 2025 is coming in hot — and it’s split in two! Independent grocers face a uniquely bifurcated season: early-bird shoppers looking to dodge price hikes and shortages, and last-minute thrill seekers chasing deals. The trick is in the timing and the treats.

According to NielsenIQ, “This Halloween is shaping up to be a balancing act — some shoppers are planning to jump in early to beat price hikes, while others are holding out for last-minute deals.”

For grocers, that means staying nimble with promotions, inventory, and product mix is key to capturing both sides of the holiday spectrum.

Two Shopper Timelines: Early Birds vs. Last-Minute Thrill Seekers

NielsenIQ data shows that over 75% of shoppers, and especially families, plan to finish Halloween shopping by mid-October to avoid rising costs and shortages.

The survey also reveals:

• Early shoppers are motivated by fear of out-of-stocks, rising prices, and the need for more time to shop. Gen Z, Hispanics, and households with children are most likely to plan early.
• Late shoppers, on the other hand, are waiting for bigger deals or trying to avoid impulse purchases. About 31% cite “waiting for last-minute deals” as a top reason for delaying.

“Increasingly, Americans are thinking more short-term in every aspect of their lives — which could translate into more impulse. purchases, even for predictable, seasonal occasions," NielsenIQ VP Consumer Life Rachel Bonsignore said.

Independent grocers can use this insight to plan staggered promotions. Launch early incentives in September for families and cost-conscious shoppers, then reserve a wave of late-season deals for bargain hunters in the final week.

Shifting Treat Mix: Chocolate Isn’t King for Everyone

Chocolate remains a staple, but treat preferences are evolving. NielsenIQ notes that “younger households are leaning toward gummy and hard candy” and that many families are prioritizing homemade treats to cut back on spending. According to the report, shoppers planning to purchase chocolate can be broken into income groups:

• Lower-income households say chocolate is not a priority this year.
• Middle-income households are split.
• Upper-income households still plan to prioritize chocolate.

Ensure your assortments reflect a balance: stock gummies, hard candy, and DIY-friendly ingredients alongside chocolate, and highlight homemade and “spooky DIY” inspiration in displays to tap into rising DIY trends.

Costumes, Décor, and Even Pets: DIY on the Rise

Halloween is no longer just about candy. NielsenIQ’s insights reveal that Millennials will lead demand for pet costumes with a mix of new, reused, and DIY looks, while Gen Z will favor creative, budget-friendly options. Décor is also trending toward DIY and reused, even among higher-income households.

As NielsenIQ Associate Client Director Sam Smith put it, “The real trick this year? Balancing festive flair with financial savvy.”

Independents can tap into this trend by offering low-cost craft kits, baking supplies, and cross-promotions with pet products. Curate “Halloween at Home” endcaps that offer bundled affordable décor items, candy, and DIY baking essentials.

Spreading Out Spending

Pricing pressures have 18% of shoppers planning to spread their Halloween purchases across several weeks, especially Hispanics, Millennials, and households with children. NielsenIQ noted that “promotions need to start early and be structured to drive incremental sales.”

Instead of a single promotion, consider rolling out a phased campaign:

• Now: Kick off with “Beat the Price Hike” deals on staples.
• Early October: Spotlight DIY kits, costumes, and candy multipacks.
• Final Week: Push impulse-friendly, grab-and-go deals for last-minute shoppers.

For independent grocers, the opportunity is clear: embrace agility. By planning promotions in waves, balancing product assortments, and leaning into DIY creativity, you can make Halloween 2025 not just a holiday, but a profitable season.

“With treat preferences shifting and homemade goodies on the rise, retailers and manufacturers should be asking, 'Will we be stocked early enough? Will we be priced right for late shoppers? And will we be offering the right mix to meet evolving household needs?' Staying nimble will be key to capturing both ends of the Halloween spectrum.” said NielsenIQ VP Food Insights Lead Chris Costagli. 

IGA grocers should check their National Digital Ad for Halloween offers from Red Oval Partners and talk to their Licensed Distribution Centers (LDCs) about additional merchandising tips for the holiday.