Democrats Take Control of Congress in Historic Midterm Election

The below was written by the National Grocers Association (NGA).

In a historic wave, the Democratic party won control of both chambers of Congress Tuesday night, returning Washington to divided government. Democrats flipped at least seven Republican-held Senate seats, including surprising victories in traditionally Republican strongholds such as Texas, Kansas and South Carolina, while picking up more than two dozen House districts, including races in states and districts that President Trump carried comfortably in 2024.

As of Wednesday morning, the final margins remain unsettled with dozens of House races and two Senate contests still being counted, however we expect Democrats to hold at least 250 House seats. This marks the largest majority either party has held in the House since 2009. Democrats are expected to hold between 54 and 56 Senate seats. The scale of Democratic victory far exceeded expert consensus and extended well beyond the handful of battleground races initially expected to determine control of Congress. The results represent a major setback for congressional Republicans and will fundamentally change the legislative and political landscape for the remainder of President Trump's term.

Beginning in January 2027, NGA will be working with a Democratic-controlled House and Senate. This will mean new congressional and committee leadership, changes in legislative priorities, a different oversight environment and the need to build relationships with incoming committee chairs and members. Bipartisan engagement will remain important to advancing the independent grocery industry's priorities.

Committees governing financial services and commerce could focus on issues around consumer protection, surveillance pricing and data privacy. While many of these legislative measures may have little prospect of becoming law, they will provide Democrats with opportunities to draw contrasts with Republicans and more importantly demonstrate responsiveness to voters' concerns.

Diving Into The Races

Let’s take a closer look at some of the key races, highlighting notable wins and losses and the candidates who will be shaping the next Congress.

Notable House Republican Incumbent Defeats:

IN-05 — Victoria Spartz: Defeated by J.D. Ford in a district Trump carried by nearly 17 points in 2024.

PA-01 — Brian Fitzpatrick: Defeated by Bob Harvie despite a strong bipartisan reputation and a nearly 13-point reelection margin in 2024. Fitzpatrick served as Chairman of the House Intelligence Subcommittee on the Central Intelligence Agency.

MO-02 — Ann Wagner: Defeated by Fred Wellman in a race Cook Political Report had rated Likely Republican. Wagner served as Chairwoman of the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets and Intelligence Subcommittee on Open Source Intelligence.

WI-01 — Bryan Steil: Defeated by Mitchell Berman in a district that had not elected a Democrat to Congress in more than three decades. Steil was Chairman of the House Committee on House Administration.

WI-03 — Derrick Van Orden: Defeated in a district that voted for Trump in three consecutive presidential elections. Van Orden served as Chairman of the House Veterans' Affairs Subcommittee on Economic Opportunity.

VA-02 — Jen Kiggans: Defeated in a district Trump carried in 2024. Kiggans served as Chairwoman of the House Veterans' Affairs Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations.

TX-15 — Monica De La Cruz: Defeated by Bobby Pulido despite winning reelection by 14 points in 2024.

IA-01 — Mariannette Miller-Meeks: Defeated by Christina Bohannan as part of a broader Democratic sweep in Iowa, which Trump carried by 13 points in 2024. Miller-Meeks served as Chairwoman of the House Veterans' Affairs Subcommittee on Health.

IA-03 — Zach Nunn: Defeated by Sarah Trone Garriott as part of the broader Democratic gains in Iowa. Nunn served as a vice chairman on the House Financial Services Subcommittee on National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions.

Unexpected Democratic Pickups in Open Republican Seats

KY-06 — Zach Dembo: Captured a previously safe Republican seat where outgoing Rep. Andy Barr won by 26 points in 2024.

IA-02 — Lindsay James: Flipped the seat vacated by Ashley Hinson, who ran unsuccessfully for Senate.

NE-02 — Denise Powell: Won the Omaha-area seat vacated by retiring Rep. Don Bacon.

TX-23 — Katy Padilla Stout: Flipped the seat previously held by Tony Gonzales, despite Lean Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball.

Major Senate Republican Incumbent Defeats

Maine — Susan Collins: Defeated by Democrat Troy Jackson. Collins, a five-term incumbent and Chairwoman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, had repeatedly survived difficult political environments and was the only Republican senator seeking reelection in a state Harris carried in 2024.

Kansas — Roger Marshall: Defeated by Adam Hamilton, who became the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Kansas since 1932. Marshall chaired two subcommittees in the 119th Congress: the Agriculture Subcommittee on Conservation, Forestry, Natural Resources, and Biotechnology and the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Subcommittee on Primary Health and Retirement Security. He also co-sponsored the Credit Card Competition Act alongside retiring Senator Dick Durbin. Neither will return to the Senate for the 120th Congress.

Ohio — Jon Husted: Defeated by former Senator Sherrod Brown, returning him to the upper chamber and reclaiming a seat Democrats lost in 2024.

South Carolina — Darline Graham: Defeated by Annie Andrews, delivering the state's first Democratic Senate victory since 1998 in a state Trump carried by 18 points in 2024.

Democratic Pickups in Open Republican Seats

Texas — James Talarico: Defeated Republican Ken Paxton, who had ousted incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP primary. Talarico became Texas's first Democratic senator since 1993, marking the party's first statewide victory in more than three decades.

Iowa — Josh Turek: Defeated Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson for retiring Sen. Joni Ernst's seat, becoming the first Democrat since Barack Obama to win a statewide federal race in Iowa. The victory came alongside Democratic gains in the governor's race and three House districts.

North Carolina — Roy Cooper: The former Democratic governor won the open seat vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis.

Political Framing Heading into 2028

Republicans Face Tough Questions: The losses have sparked finger-pointing within the GOP over Trump's influence, candidate selection and the party's future. Republicans now face a debate over whether to double down on Trump's political approach or broaden their appeal ahead of 2028.

Democrats Have Their Own Divisions: Winning doesn't mean everyone agrees on the path forward. Progressives see the results as a mandate for a more aggressive economic agenda, particularly on corporate power and affordability. Moderates point to victories in Republican-leaning states as proof that practical, middle-of-the-road candidates can win. How Democrats navigate these competing priorities will shape their agenda in Congress and the race for the White House in 2028.

NGA Grocers PAC Wins

NGA Grocers PAC-supported candidates delivered several important wins on Election Night, including victories that will help maintain relationships with key congressional champions and advance the association’s priorities in the 120th Congress.

Rep. Shomari Figures (D-AL) held off Republican challenger Rhett Marques, winning reelection to Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District despite a Republican redistricting effort that made the seat more competitive. Figures secured approximately 54% of the vote, keeping the seat in Democratic hands.

Rep. Shontel Brown (D-OH) also won reelection, Brown has been a strong champion on our food and nutrition priorities, and is positioned to become chair of the agriculture committee in January.

Rep. Lance Gooden (R-TX) secured reelection in a closely watched race against Democrat Chelsey Hockett. Gooden has been a leading House champion of swipe-fee reform: he introduced the 2026 Credit Card Competition Act (H.R. 7035), alongside original Democratic co-lead Rep. Zoe Lofgren. His return to Congress provides continuity for NGA’s CCCA advocacy in the next session

Rep. Julia Letlow (R-LA) also secured a major victory, defeating Democrat Jamie Davis to win Louisiana’s open U.S. Senate seat. Letlow held off a closer-than-expected challenge, winning approximately 52% of the vote with most ballots counted. She will become the first Republican woman elected to the U.S. Senate from Louisiana, transitioning from the House to the Senate for the 120th Congress.

Lame-Duck Session Outlook

With several major legislative priorities still unresolved, the lame-duck session will be an important period for NGA to monitor. Senate Majority Leader Schumer has reportedly directed committees to hold off on negotiations over the Farm Bill, the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), and spending bills, making it increasingly likely that key issues will carry over into early 2027. Government funding will also need to be addressed, with another continuing resolution (CR) likely to extend into next year. For NGA, the timing could affect progress on outstanding priorities related to agriculture, nutrition programs, and federal funding.

NGA will also be watching whether lawmakers use the remaining weeks to advance other industry priorities or whether those efforts are pushed into 2027. With several members preparing to leave Congress, attendance and leadership's willingness to bring outstanding legislation to the floor will be important factors in determining what gets done before the 120th Congress begins.

State Advocacy Takes Center Stage

Democrats flipped five Republican-held governorships in the 2026 midterms, winning in Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Texas. These victories give Democrats a majority of governorships nationwide for the first time since 2010, with at least 28 Democratic governors expected to take office.

With divided government likely to slow federal legislation, state legislatures and attorneys general will play an increasingly important role in shaping grocery policy. NGA is well positioned to build on its growing state advocacy efforts, leveraging relationships with attorneys general and state policymakers to influence antitrust enforcement, pricing technology, SNAP implementation and swipe fees. By strengthening coordination with state associations and engaging early on emerging issues, NGA can amplify the industry's voice, shape policy outcomes and deliver meaningful results for independent grocers nationwide.

NGA supported state level candidates:

Nevada Attorney General-elect Nicole Cannizzaro (D): Cannizzaro, currently Nevada Senate Majority Leader, won her race for attorney general. She is expected to be a strong ally in NGA’s antitrust efforts as we continue to expand our state legislative efforts.

South Carolina Attorney General-elect David Stumbo (R): Stumbo secured his victory in South Carolina’s attorney general race. NGA has also had the opportunity to meet with Stumbo and build a relationship ahead of his transition into office.